|
«And
our dust, with strictness of judge and citizen,
Descendant will insult with contemptuous verse.
By bitter mockery of the deceived son,
On the squandering father».
M.
LERMONTOV.
The
situation in Russia becomes critically dangerous, as written by today Russian
masses media. Fall of oil prices and threat of OPEC to bring down these still
more, gives rise to unpleasant questions. Will, as mirage, not melt relative
economic and political stability of Putin’s era? And will not return Russia
straight into August of 1998?
The
cause for appearance of similar questions serves at least three factors. A drop in oil prices in world market is the main thing
of these. Playing the first violin in OPEC, Saudi Arabia completely can
tolerably exist on the level of prices of the oil into 9 dollars for a barrel.
But this price for Russia would be disastrous, whose economy is held basically
on pivot of petroleum.
Even
if the oil price is held down on the mark of 17-18 dollars for a barrel, losses
of Russian budget will comprise not less than 6-8 billion dollars. In the
opinion of experts, in that case, authority will be forced to support the
economy at float due to accumulated reserves. This will involve the delay of
payments of pensions, grants, wages and as consequence, it will cause protests
in the society.
In
the case of a drop in the prices to 13-14 dollars for a barrel, losses of budget
will be 9-10 billion dollars. And then government will go to the sequestration
and will ask financial aid from the West. The beginning even now of devaluation
of ruble will achieve extremely dangerous feature. Political situation ceases to
be favorable for Putin.
Well,
and if the price of oil descends to 9-10 dollars for a barrel, then budgetary
losses will reach colossal sum. Economy will obtain deep knockout, the country
will be plunged into political chaos. Then nothing will save Putin.
Deterioration
of economic situation will not only be dangerous by itself. Second factor as
consequence of the first, will become the slippage of the reforms, to which
Putin has attached great hopes.
As
is known, for 2002 years, Putin planned municipal, judicial, military, and
social reforms, which require significant financial infusions. Even under
conditions of relative economic prosperity, conducting many of the outlined
reforms would be dangerous for Putin rating, writes newspaper «Moscow Comsomol
member”. Municipal reform provides for, for example, not only a serious
increase in rent, but also simultaneous cancellation of privileges for
colleagues of primary structures. It is clear that agreeing to such a measure
will lead President to serious risk. He can lose support to one of his main
social supports in society.
The
third factor of danger is outlined split in presidential command - in recent
weeks in Russian corridors of authority prevailed fried smell. In the context of
this, one of the main objects for mockeries of Moscow political elites became
fussiness recently revealed in Ustinov's general prosecutor office. The chief of
prosecutor office is similarly ready to study conveniently - be guide on atomic
submarine «Kursk», and accuser of Raduyev in Makhachkala - only not to be
located in Moscow. Experts explain this by desire of attorney not to become
victim of internal war inside Putin’s command. Apparently, «bathing feat» of
Skuratov by no means entice him...
On
the increased activity of «Piter’s (Petersburg) power holders» in Kremlin,
we wrote still earlier. Head of presidential secretariat, Igor Sechin, chief of
accounts chamber, former KGB agent Sergei Stepashin, and also influential in
Kremlin, head of mejprombank, Sergei Pugachev adjoin to close one to Putin, KGB
officer, Yuri Zaostrovtsev and head of cadre member, Viktor Ivanov.
This
group demonstrated unceremonious commitment in the fight for expulsion of its
competitors from imperious structures. Some workers of opposite camp (Yeltsin
command, which led Putin to authority) proved to be before the prospect of
criminal pursuit or at least in the center of loud scandals. Suffered those, who
attacked. For example, the most close to Putin and occupying highest posts in
the government of piter, Zaostrovtsev was accused of «covering» of a furniture
company. Comes out like this that no one won, but all proved to be painted over.
Fight in this case is not stopped and probability of the output of situation
from under control is completely probable.
But
experts are not limited to these three factors. On the contrary, they forecast
aggravation of situation because of the events in Chechnya and Afghanistan. The
correctness of selected course on rapprochement with the West by Putin is still
in prospect to prove to society. The significant classes of Russian society, in
view of old mentality, in no way can be reconciled with decisions of Putin by
liquidation of the military bases in Cuba and in Vietnam. The agreement of peaks
of the payment of external debts, the wear of bulk of industrial equipment,
including in the natural gas branch, preparation of political elite for the next
presidential elections, in short, all this together, actively works against
Putin.
Myth
about the fact that «our new leader has good desires for us. Simply he is
reserved. He will carry out his promise to convert Russia into great power»,
slowly is scattered. On above-mentioned three whales names maintained rating of
Putin to the present day well and now people were disappointed - he could not
keep his promise. For this, he proved to be not in enough free sincere state. He
did not know how to fill the country with some idea. Main destroyer proved to be
ineligible to this. Even to the pragmatic jerk in economy, because of the
fantastic prices of the oil (on what hoped many), Putin proved to be incapable.
Even for this, he proved to be KGBian.
|
